Friday, September 5, 2008

Why John McCain Won't Win

When it comes to Presidential elections a lot is made of people and ideas and themes and other crap but just like fantasy baseball and chemistry and all sorts of other things it is purely a numbers game and the numbers make it nearly impossible for McCain to win unless something drastic happens in the next 60 days to make a lot of people change their minds. Here is the list of Obama safe states at this point
  • California- 55
  • New York - 31
  • Illinois - 21
  • Pennsylvania - 21
  • Michigan - 17
  • New Jersey - 15
  • Mass. - 12
  • Washington - 11
  • Maryland - 10
  • Minnesota - 10
  • Wisconsin - 10
  • Conn. - 7
  • Iowa - 7
  • Oregon - 7
  • New Mexico - 5
  • Hawaii - 4
  • Maine - 4
  • Rhode Island - 4
  • Delaware - 3
  • DC - 3
  • Vermont - 3
Assuming I didn't miss anyone that is a total of 260 electoral votes, only 10 away from getting the 270 needed to win. This mean winning Ohio OR Virginia OR Colorado + anything else or even Nevada + New Hampshire + North Dakota is enough w/o Ohio, Florida, Virginia or Colorado is enough to win. Simply put McCain and his red states need Obama to really, really screw up OR need to do something so outstanding a major shift in popularity occurs. The only other way is for McCain to take what he is supposed to and then run off and get Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Indiana and a couple of the small chippies to be able to crawl to 270 (but Bush did it twice so it obviously is possible)

I will also refer you to two sites I used in this and like to look at generally, electoral-vote.com and 270towin.com

No comments: