Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Market Prediction

I'm going to make a market prediction but don't really have any money I could put on it so this one is just for fun ....

The Dow yesterday closed at 10,365 at 11,143 on Friday at close and it was at 13,028 in May. I think that the Dow will fall another 400 or 500 points before small rallies. I think once it breaks that 10,000 limit then the people who have been liquid will jump in and I think that the liquid banks will continue to buy up the belly-up banks. I think we may have already seen that but the stupidity of the bail-out with Congress is causing them to want to sit out and wait to see what happens b/c they might could get it cheaper. If the government would keep their grubby hands off then the market could do what it wants to but they are tentative b/c who wouldn't want something for cheaper?

I said months ago that I wasn't getting into the market at the time b/c the housing crunch and I still think we will be hit by terrorists again at some point which will punch the market hard but if the government would keep their hands off then we can suffer now (pull the band-aid off) and it will be over much sooner as opposed to the slow pull of extending it off which really doesn't do any good b/c it will be low either way, sooner now than later.

Also people need to really remember than these "Historic Lows" are all in a microchosm and the market overall is still above where it was in October 2004. It really hasn't been that long since we were at this point there was just too much of a run-up, too fast and based on bad principles.

No comments: