Saturday, July 26, 2008

FBB

lots of big changes since last post on the fantasy baseball front.

First, with a strong pitching performance by 3 guys I moved into a tie for 2nd, with a meager 5 points separating me from first. This has me really believing that maybe, just maybe I could win this league of educated, good FBB players.

Second lots of movement on the trade front I was discussing here. The trade of Lee / Martin / Harang for Braun / Pelfrey / Mathis was accepted. This is could be a double winner for me, I definitely improved long term with Braun being a keeper and no one I traded away being. Also for this year I think Braun will surpase Martin numbers and hopefully Pelfrey (who is hot) can keep pace with Lee's #'s. Don't really care about Harang or Mathis b/c I thing Harang will be shut down for the year and I'm going to drop Mathis for a catcher with a higher BA.

The Howard / Maddux trade for Haren / Franklin was turned down without comment and I retracted the Dunn / Hoffman for Bradley / Garland trade b/c once I got Braun I wasn't sure I wanted to lose that much more pitching plus I'm just scared of Dunn's low BA which Bradley doesn't have.

However, I have once again been spinning the trade wheel. I offered and it was already accepted a deal where I get Dan Uggla for Colby Rasmus. This could seem really unfair but remember this is a keeper league and to some Rasmus is the next Mickey Mantle. I also think the only way this went through is b/c the guy had benched Uggla and didn't plan on putting him back in in the near future.

I have also offered 2 other block busters that I am wondering about with my new found 2nd place status.

Trade 1: Hanley / J. Gomes / W.M. Pena for M. Bradley / Jay Bruce / Tulo. Lots of young talent in this one. The guy with Hanley is in last place and has already resigned himself to next year SO I'm trying to trade him 3 guys he may want to keep including Bruce who maybe the next Griffey for a proven #1 in Hanley and 2 shmoes. Since we only get to keep 5 I don't feel I could keep both Tulo and Bruce based on the rest of my team so I offer both plus another good player to try and get a #1. 3 for 1 maybe he will take it.

Trade 2: Very Similar: David Wright / J.Rivera / J.Willingham for Bradley / Bruce / Tulo. I don't expect this guy to be as interested in the trade as he is sitting in first. So I had to caste the same 3 guys as 3 he can play now, with surely a combo of Bradley and Tulo equally whatever Wright and 2 guys from the bench were giving. Maybe he will take it, maybe not, probably have a better chance with Haren but not ready to go there yet since he is the guy I'm trying to catch in Wins (and overall points).

Third part of the post here is an examination of the standings and where I need to improve to get into first and where I need to watch out for people catching me. I've done a little more work this time than normal b/c I'm also watching the other 4 teams that are battling me at the top of the league.

  • In runs I can move up one spot with 2 more runs than the guy in front of me. 645 - 647
  • In homers I have all sorts of growth room which will hopefully be supplemented by Braun and Uggla I'm at 152, 155 and 155 are right there and then a group of 6 with 162-169. If I could march up this list that is +8 for me and going backwards for others.
  • In RBI's not really in a position to catch someone but one of my competitors is only 1 rbi behind so have to beat him for that spot
  • In SB's can't really catch either, 1 guy 3 behind me and then a pack of 3 more back there within 10 steals, with me chasing power I have to watch out for these guys
  • AVG is a place of importance. I can move up 1 spot easily as I'm 274 and he is 275 but I can also fall backwards as there is a 274 and 274. Iffy ground here that I have to maintain
  • Wins is my other place besides homers to make hay. I'm at 52. 54, 54, 55 are right there to be taken and one of the 54's is the league leader making it a 2 pt swing if I catch him. Also one guy 1 behind me at 51 have to outpace him.
  • Saves - I'm at 72, one guy at 75 that can be caught but my bullpen is beat up without Saito and Wagner iffy. Plus I'm chasing wins so I don't have all my relievers in there. If I keep doing that the folks behind me can catch me but until then I'm chasing wins.
  • K's - I'm in second, probably can't catch first, have to look out for 1 guy behind me close. Worst case lose 1 spot.
  • ERA - back to the averages where everyone is bunched up. I'm currently in 1st and .05 ahead of the next guy which is actually a lot. This is why I'm doing well, my pitching staff is 1st in ERA and 2nd in K's, not an easy accomplishment/balance.
  • WHIP - The third column to make lots of hay. There are current 6 teams tied at a 1.28 WHIP. That is just incredible, after 4 months of baseball half of the league is tied. Additionally of the other guys I watch out for 3 of the 4 are tied with me here, lots of chance to move up or down here but WHIP is so hard to calculate anyway.

So in conclusion here is the strategy at this point:

  • Make hay in Homers, Wins and Whip
  • Make 1 place advances in Runs and Saves
  • Try and hold what we have in RBI, Steals, Average, K's and ERA

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